Moneybox

It’s the One Thing Holding Many People Together. Trump’s Tariffs May Just Take It Away.

Have you had your sweet treat today?

A repeating pattern of a mug with a latte in it against a light yellow background.
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It’s no secret that much of this country’s social contract rests on the ability to access little sweet treats to break up the painful slog of eking out a living. Look no further than the therapeutic objective of trinkets like Sonny Angels for young working women, or the popularization of festooned coffees among Gen Z and millennials as a form of self-care and escapism.

The fact of the matter is, many people in this country were made promises that were never realized; the idea that working hard equals making enough money to comfortably live a life that could not be found anywhere else in the world is about as true and reasonable as telling everyone that the tooth fairy runs a sweatshop inside your mouth. The cost of living has ballooned, salaries have not, and baby boomers are not retiring, making career and pay growth difficult for younger generations. At what point does continuing to stare down the abyss of this reality start to become self-flagellation? The only string tying many people’s brains together is the promise of a small little expense to get them through the day.

Alexa, 28, who asked to only use her first name for privacy concerns, told Slate that she also fears for the viability of accessing her little treats, which include Thai takeout. Already in the past few weeks, she’s seen the prices at her favorite Thai restaurant increase, while strawberries—one of her other favorite indulgences—are one of the fruits most likely to be most impacted by Trump’s tariffs on Mexico.

“My sweet-treat consumption has scaled upward over the years because I make more money, but I would also say because I feel more cynical about the world,” she said. “Climate disasters are more frequent and extreme, the microplastics are even more embedded in our brains than we previously realized, we just laid off the federal workers who were taking care of Florida’s manatee refuge. I feel discouraged often these days and want to have a sweet treat on deck.”

An iced vanilla latte with oat milk. A fast-fashion skirt purchased online. A eucalyptus tea–scented candle. A collectible Labubu doll or Smiski blind box. A pain au chocolat from a nearby bakery.

“Sweet treat” has become a common diminutive phrase used to describe the small purchases (which are sometimes neither sweet, nor an edible treat) meant to help you feel something throughout the day. But as with so many of the positive things in life, the sweet-treat economy is under attack with the rollout of President Donald Trump’s wide-ranging directives. The president’s mass deportations have thrown the agriculture and restaurant industries into panic and uncertainty, as farmworkers and restaurant employees have feared returning to work due to nationwide Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. Meanwhile, the oscillating rollout of Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have affected companies scrambling to figure out how to mitigate anticipated cost increases. Temu and Shein loyalists in particular have already felt the brunt of Trump’s levies against China, with delayed shipping and rising prices weighing down the dirt-cheap retailers and their legions of fans. Add on rising inflation and ballooning costs of living, and many people are worried that their sweet treats—already little luxuries—will soon become totally unaffordable.

Michelle, 27, said she’s experienced fear over loss of her nearly daily sweet treat: a Sumo orange, which she described as “the most juicy and easy-to-peel orange with the best orange flavor you’ve ever had.”

Sumo oranges, a seedless satsuma–mandarin orange hybrid, only began shipping to the United States a decade ago. The fruit originated in Japan but is now grown domestically in the San Joaquin Valley, which recently experienced disruptions to harvests amid the fear of ICE raids. Otherwise, they are only imported from Australia, where exports like steel and aluminum have also been targets of Trump tariffs, and other major exports like beef and dairy could be next. Otherwise, the Sumos haven’t been immune to inflation—Delish reported that they cost north of $3 per pound in 2021, but today, they cost $10 for a 2-pound bag at Whole Foods.

With all of these factors, Michelle, who asked to remain anonymous for fear of her friends and family learning how much she consumes Sumo oranges, is worried that they will soon become out of her budget entirely. She said that she usually likes to keep at least one on hand at all times in case she has a rough day at work.

“If we didn’t have Sumo oranges in the New York winter I would probably have to move out of New York,” Michelle said. “It is the only thing I have to look forward to in the winter.”

It’s possible that many of these common treats will soon come under the same kind of price attack as Sumo oranges and strawberries. Coffee and chocolate have experienced climate change–induced crises over the years, with cacao and coffee beans both facing record high prices and record low supply. Foods that are largely imported, like tomatoes, avocados, and bananas, are also at risk of tariff-induced increases. To consider these produce purchases as “treats” in and of itself feels symptomatic of a larger trend: Everyday expenses like housing, groceries, and clothing have all experienced price hikes and quality decreases since the onset of the pandemic, turning them from basic purchases to special things. Meanwhile, the things we consider to already be “treats,” like toys, concerts, vacations, or special occasion–wear, are slowly being priced out of our budgets altogether. China is still the biggest producer and exporter of textiles, electronics, and toys, and in light of Trump’s 10 percent tariff for all Chinese imports that went into effect this month, prices for everything from clothes to phones to Squishmallows and Jellycats are likely to jump higher.

There doesn’t seem to be much relief coming in the near future. Despite Trump employing splashy branding for ideas like the $1 billion egg-price reduction plan, the reality is that things are getting more expensive—and that could be the end of sweet treats for even the most dedicated. Alexa said she feels that if prices continue to rise, there will be a time when she has to stop buying both her beloved strawberries and takeout. “I’m afraid of the disappointment of paying $6 for a tiny clamshell of strawberries only for them to taste like a bland Hello Kitty eraser,” she said. “I will still shell out an indecent amount of money for some Thai takeout, but if prices keep going up I don’t know how financially or emotionally sustainable that is. If I had to put a hard number on it, I would say that more than $16 for a pad see ew really wounds me.”

At some point, though, when the sweet treats run dry, all you have left is the uncomfortable truth of how acutely everyone is suffering. Michelle said that the loss of her treat of choice—Sumo oranges—“could radicalize me further. I’m not sure, but this winter has been so fucked up politically, and outside is so cold, I think anything could happen.”