The race between Finland's three main parties is heating up ahead of parliamentary elections in April, based on the results of Yle's latest monthly poll of voter sentiment.
Voter backing for the opposition National Coalition Party (NCP) — which has consistently topped Yle's regular poll since 2021 — fell by 1.4 percentage points to 21.6 percent. Meanwhile, the Social Democratic Party (SDP), led by Prime Minister Sanna Marin, saw its support rise slightly to 19.1 percent.
This was enough for the SDP to reclaim second spot in the standings from the opposition Finns Party, which saw its support drop by nearly a percentage point to 18.4 percent.
Although the changes do not represent huge swings in support, the latest survey results demonstrate that the race between the top three has become much tighter.
In December, for example, the NCP held a 5 percentage point lead over Marin's Social Democrats and a 6 point lead over the Finns. This lead over both parties has since diminished to within the 3 percentage point margin of error.
Tuomo Turja, the research director at polling firm Taloustutkimus, noted that a drop in support for the most popular party is normal once election campaigning begins.
"The closer the elections get, the tighter the lead becomes. History has shown that even big leads in the polls tend to melt away by the time the actual election campaign starts," Turja said.
He cites the 2015 parliamentary elections as an example, which the Centre Party won but saw its support drop significantly from the previous year's high of almost 27 percent.
The decline in voter backing for the NCP in this latest poll can be attributed to a larger number of voters, who previously said they supported the party, now declaring themselves undecided.
Turja further noted that more people say they are unsure about their position than during the previous polling period, with only 69 percent of respondents now prepared to state their party allegiances.
This can also be explained by the proximity of the elections, as voters are now considering their own positions more carefully.
"The election campaigns are underway and voters are starting to think more carefully about which party to vote for. The proportion of people who are unsure has increased and this is clearly reflected here," Turja noted.
As the adage goes, a week is a long time in politics. And so is two months, but Turja believes the latest poll results show how much things may change before election day on Sunday 2 April.
"It will certainly be a close fight, and the NCP cannot be sure that it will take first place," he said.
Greens and Centre swap places
Support for PM Marin's SDP has remained steady throughout 2022 and into 2023, a consistency which Turja describes as "exceptional" in recent history.
"It is usually the main party in government that suffers most from the actions of the government. We have a very popular Prime Minister at the moment and the government is also exceptionally popular, so perhaps these things have an impact," he said.
According to the results of the latest poll, the combined support for the governing coalition parties is 51.5 percent.
Coalition partners, the Greens and the Centre, switched places in the rankings as the Maria Ohisalo-led Green Party saw its support jump to 10.3 percent and leapfrogged the Centre, whose support dropped to 10.1 percent.
Although voter support for the Centre Party has plummeted in recent years, Turja noted that the party usually does well in elections.
"The Centre has the advantage of a well-functioning party organisation and electoral machinery," he said.
Among the other governing parties, support for the Left Alliance fell by one percentage point to 7.6 percent, while backing for the Swedish People's Party rose slightly to 4.4 percent.
Finns Party supporters move to Christian Democrats
On the opposition benches, the Christian Democrats (CD) saw a 1.1 percentage point bump in support, with Turja noting that many previous Finns Party voters have now pledged their support to CD.
Support for smaller parties — including the Liberal Party, the Pirate Party and Power Belongs to the People — now stands at 2.7 percent following a rise of over one percentage point.
Yle will publish two more voter polls before the parliamentary elections, on 2 March and 30 March.
The Yle-commissioned survey was conducted by polling firm Taloustutkimus between 9 and 31 January. It queried 2,466 people in Finland, asking respondents which party they would vote for if parliamentary elections were to be held now. Some 1,724 respondents indicated their party affiliation. The poll had a maximum margin of error of 2 percentage points in either direction.
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