Russian troops stationed near the Finnish border are focusing on the war in Ukraine. This is evident from recent satellite images obtained by Yle, which show Russian garrisons and bases near Finland.
From Finland's perspective, the situation remains stable. Russia lacks the resources to bolster its military presence near Finland and is instead directing additional troops and equipment towards the conflict in Ukraine. This shift is driven by Russia's massive personnel and equipment losses in the war.
This article highlights the most significant changes in Russian bases since last spring.
Last autumn, the largest construction project by the Russian forces in nearby regions was the erection of a new maintenance hall at a vast equipment depot in Petrozavodsk, 175 kilometres east of the Finnish border.
According to satellite images, the hall measures approximately 50 by 25 metres, covering around 1,250 square metres. It could accommodate about 50 armoured vehicles, if packed tightly.
The hall was constructed between September and October. You can observe the change by sliding the image.
The Petrozavodsk depot is the largest maintenance area for Russian ground forces near the Finnish border.
The new maintenance hall is the third of its kind recently built at the depot. The previous hall was constructed by the Russian armed forces in May.
The hall facilitates the repair and maintenance of armoured vehicles, other vehicles and artillery, which are then loaded onto trains.
"It is likely that materiel deliveries to Ukraine continue from there," says military expert Marko Eklund, who analysed the satellite images for Yle.
Major (Ret.) Eklund has worked in Finnish military intelligence and monitored the Russian armed forces for over 20 years.
The Petrozavodsk depot could have future significance for Finland.
Last spring, Russia reestablished the Soviet-era Leningrad Military District alongside the Finnish border.
The ostensible purpose of the military district is to prepare for a perceived Nato threat from the Nordic region. The district will need a substantial amount of equipment, which is still plentiful in Petrozavodsk.
"However, nothing modern like 2030s combat equipment will originate from there," Eklund says. According to him, the depot's weapons and vehicles mostly date back to the Soviet era, so are more than three decades old.
In addition to equipment, the Leningrad Military District would require a significant increase in troops, i.e. combat forces and supporting arms brigades, such as anti-aircraft, pioneer and electronic warfare brigades, for example.
"If they don't materialise, the Leningrad Military District will remain a political paper tiger," Eklund says.
Permanent tent camp for military drills on Karelian Isthmus
Russian troops are likely also preparing for the Ukraine war in Kamenka, known in Finnish as Kaukjärvi.
This location hosts the strongest Russian force near Finland. The large garrison and training area are used by the 138th Motorised Rifle Brigade.
Last winter, an unusually large tent camp was established in the Kamenka training area, accommodating some 2,000 soldiers. The latest satellite images show an increase in the number of tents.
The satellite images reveal the proliferation of tents last summer and autumn.
"Based on this, Kamenka is the most significant training centre in the area in preparing troops for war," Eklund says.
According to satellite images, this involves continuous training of forces from outside the brigade, beyond its own biannual training period exercises.
More military equipment in Luga than ever
Based on satellite images, large-scale training for the war in Ukraine is now also taking place in the Luga region, Eklund says. Luga is south of St Petersburg, approximately 120 kilometres east of Estonia.
Luga is home to an artillery brigade, a motor rifle brigade and a missile brigade equipped with Iskander missiles. A tent camp and an exceptionally large number of vehicles can be seen in the infantry brigade's barracks area.
According to Eklund's assessment, the amount of equipment suggests that the backbone of one or even two battalion tactical groups destined for Ukraine has been assembled at the garrison.
"The infantry brigade's activity has clearly intensified. The autumn images show more equipment than ever before," Eklund says.
The garrison has been monitored via satellite images since the early 2000s.
Similarly, troops and equipment were earlier assembled at the Alakurtti garrison to be sent to Ukraine, as Yle reported in July 2022.
According to the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the infantry brigade stationed in Luga fought last summer in Vovchansk, near Kharkiv. Ukraine reports that the brigade suffered significant losses.
Eklund: Finns can sleep peacefully
According to Eklund, Russia's focus is now firmly on Ukraine. It is unable to enhance its military arsenal near Finland, despite a desire to do so.
"There is no concrete threat from Russia, as its troops are elsewhere. The entire focus is elsewhere," Eklund says.
Can Finns then sleep peacefully in 2025, as far as the Russian armed forces are concerned?
"I would say so. The events of the war in Ukraine are what we should be most concerned about. Nothing groundbreaking can happen in Russia's other nearby regions within the next year or two," Eklund says.
However, Russia may engage in various hybrid threats, Eklund warns.
The article was partially translated with AI assistance.
