There is strong support for opposition parties in Yle's first wellbeing county and municipal election polls, with a little more than two months remaining before the dual election day on 13 April.
According to the survey, if municipal elections were held now, the opposition Social Democratic Party would receive the most support (22%) and Prime Minister Petteri Orpo's National Coalition Party would come in second (at 20.8%).
The second-largest government coalition party, the Finns Party, found itself in fourth place with 12.9 percent support, behind the opposition Centre Party (14.5%).
The Yle-commissioned survey was conducted by Taloustutkimus. The polling firm's research director, Tuomo Turja, said the results reflect people's sentiments about parliamentary parties.
"As the largest opposition party, the SDP will certainly be successful in channeling voters' dissatisfaction with the government. On the other hand, there are also supporters of the government's policies. Traditionally, the [PM's] NCP has a fairly loyal base that vote in every election, and that can be seen in the survey results," Turja said.
"On the other hand, the Finns Party clearly has had difficulty getting the same level of support in the municipal elections, compared to other ones, particularly parliamentary elections," he added.
The opposition Green Party took fifth place in the municipal election poll, followed by their opposition colleagues the Left Alliance.
Race just getting started
When compared to the 2021 municipal election results, the new poll suggests that the SDP would see support jump by more than four percentage points, while the Left Alliance would see a two-point increase.
On the other side of the spectrum in such a comparison, the Finns Party would see the biggest loss in support (1.6 percent points).
"The SDP and the Left Alliance are clearly in a better position compared to the last municipal election results. The other parties are trailing a bit, especially the Finns Party. However, it should be taken into account that major changes are still possible after campaigns and discussions get into full swing," Turja explained.
County elections
On Sunday 13 April, Finland will hold two simultaneous elections — the wellbeing county elections and the municipal elections. However, Helsinki is not taking part in the county elections.
According to the Yle survey, the SDP were also favourites in the county election, garnering 22.9 percent support. The NCP came in second place with 20.3 percent support and the Centre Party saw 18.4 percent support. If the county elections were held during the latest survey round, the Finns Party would receive 10.8 percent support.
Comparing the new survey to the results of the last county elections in 2022, the SDP would see a 3.6 percentage point uptick, the Left Alliance would see increased support of 2.2 percentage points and the Green Party would also receive a bit more support. All three of these parties are in the opposition.
Compared to the election results, the new survey found decreased support for all other parties, with the biggest losses carried by the Swedish People's Party (two percentage points). The NCP would also lose 1.3 percentage points in such a comparison.
"The support figures for the municipal and regional elections are quite similar. However, there are many of the same candidates [in both elections] and the elections' themes are actually somewhat similar. Voters may not be able to grasp the differences between these elections very well," Turja noted.
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