Uranium is in the crosshairs of the US-Canada tariff battle

President Donald Trump’s tariff threats could raise the price of uranium used to fuel US nuclear reactors, which could have ripple effects on a tenuous nuclear renaissance spurred by the growth of energy-hungry data centers.

The US gets more than a quarter of its uranium from Canada, more than from any other country. The Trump administration imposed new tariffs on uranium and other goods on Canada this week, which he soon paused after a stock market drop and sell-off.

It’s too soon to know what the exact impact would be on the US’s nuclear energy industry if tariffs move forward. It could play into efforts to build up a domestic uranium supply, which has gotten bipartisan support and interest from major tech companies. But in the near term, the US still relies on its northern neighbor to keep reactors running.

Trump proposed a 10 percent tariff on energy products from Canada, but he announced yesterday that it would be paused until at least April 2nd. Canada-based Cameco, one of the world’s biggest uranium producers, warned that the tariffs would inevitably lead to higher prices.

“It’s kind of Econ 101 to figure out what the impact of tariffs are in this situation,” Cameco CFO Grant Isaac said in a February 20th earnings call. A 10 percent tariff would lead to a 10 percent rise in uranium prices, Isaac said, whether that’s from Canada or elsewhere. “History tells us non-tariff countries will simply increase their offer prices to just under 10 percent,” he said. When reached for comment this week, a spokesperson for Cameco said Isaac’s comments on the call still hold.

The Nuclear Energy Institute, a trade association based in Washington, DC, was coy when asked about how the tariffs might affect the US nuclear energy industry. “We agree in principle that actions should be taken to unleash America’s energy dominance and protect our national security, while also creating a robust economy that spurs job creation. However, these measures could hinder growth and innovation in the energy sector and the nations’ ability to achieve energy dominance,” Doug True, senior vice president of technical and regulatory services and chief nuclear officer, said in an emailed statement.

Uranium prices have risen dramatically in recent years, with growing interest in nuclear energy — including from Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta seeking out nuclear energy to power new AI data centers. Higher uranium prices incentivized the resurgence of uranium mining in the US, with the first mine to open in nearly a decade starting up near the Grand Canyon last year. The Russia-Ukraine war is another factor, with the Biden administration banning uranium imports from Russia, another major supplier, last year.

“Why are we dependent on foreign nations when the US has the capability, has the resources, has the technology to actually become energy independent, especially in nuclear?” says Jay Yu, president of LIS Technologies, a US-based laser uranium enrichment company.

But even if the US builds up its domestic supply chain, it’s still constrained by geography. The US only holds about 1 percent of the world’s uranium reserves, while Canada holds about 10 times as much. “Tariffs would threaten uranium supply at a time when the United States is seeking to expand its nuclear dominance,” Gracelin Baskaran, director of the Critical Minerals Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote in a late January analysis.

The emergence of DeepSeek’s AI models in China, which can ostensibly use much less energy than US rivals, has also made the future of data center energy use and nuclear energy more uncertain.

Nuclear energy is still a touchy subject that’s created some strange bedfellows. Unlike coal and gas power plants, nuclear reactors don’t generate greenhouse gas emissions. That’s put it on the table as an alternative to fossil fuels that some climate hawks champion. But someone has to mine the uranium for those nuclear reactors, which some environmental groups and Indigenous activists are fighting fervently. The US has a history of uranium mines contaminating water resources on Navajo Nation land.

Trump, a big fan of the fossil fuel industry that dumped tens of millions of dollars into his campaign, has essentially tried to eradicate action on the climate crisis in the US. He could carve out exceptions for nuclear energy technologies that have garnered support from extractive industries and Big Tech. He tapped Chris Wright to lead the Energy Department; Wright was previously the CEO of a major oil and gas service provider and sat on the board of directors for a company developing advanced nuclear reactors with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.

Uranium sits at the nexus of many different power plays in the US, and tariffs could raise the stakes for everyone with something to lose or gain.