Russia still poses the greatest threat to Finland's national security, according to the latest National Security Overview published on Tuesday morning by Supo, the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service.
"It is clear that Russia in particular has significantly altered our security environment, with no signs of improvement in sight. Russia is an aggressive, expansionist state that is prepared to use all means to achieve its political goals," Supo director Juha Martelius wrote in an agency press release.
Supo's report warned that Russia's resources will be freed up once the war in Ukraine ends, and these resources could be redirected towards hybrid influencing campaigns targeting other European countries — including Finland.
"The Western intelligence community has a highly uniform view of the growing threat from Russia. As a country that borders Russia and as a state on the Baltic Sea, Finland must prepare for growth in Russian influencing," Martelius said, although Supo's report added that Finland has not yet become a focus Russian influencing to the same extent as some other EU member states — especially those with large Russian minorities or pro-Russia political parties.
The main goal of Russia's hybrid influencing efforts, for the time being at least, is to undermine Western support for Ukraine, according to the report.
The "gloomy era" of proxy confrontations
In his foreword to the report, Martelius wrote that the world has entered a "gloomy era of superpower competition and confrontation between states" which is also seeing an increase in the use of proxies.
This use of intermediaries allows certain state actors to "cover their tracks", he added.
"Such proxies enable power agencies of authoritarian countries to confuse the real state of affairs, lend plausible deniability to their actions, and foster new forms of uncertainty," Martelius noted.
Supo has observed that many of these intermediaries are recruited through social media, and paid with cryptocurrencies — meaning they often do not even know who they are working for.
Martelius cited Russian sabotage operations in Europe as one example of how proxies are being used.
"These operations have become increasingly dangerous, showing indifference to the safety of innocent bystanders. They cover a broad spectrum from highly complex cyberattacks to simple acts of destruction," he said.
In addition, Supo's report noted that both Russia and China are continuously targeting Finland with espionage operations.
Russia's espionage campaigns have become more specifically targeted, the report added, "focusing mainly on central government, and on foreign and security policy".
The Finnish defence industry in particular could become a focus of such Russian operations, Supo noted, especially in light of Finnish materiel support for Ukraine.
The importance of the Baltic Sea to Russia
With the Russian economy increasingly impacted by Western sanctions, Supo's report emphasised the importance of Baltic Sea shipping routes to Russia as it tries to find a way to circumvent export restrictions.
"Russia is continually seeking new and more subtle ways to circumvent sanctions and export restrictions, with procurement increasingly concatenated within the EU internal market also," the report noted, adding that Finnish companies may become unwittingly involved in facilitating Russia's evasion of sanctions due to the complex nature of the procurement routes.
Finland, alongside other Baltic Sea nations, has introduced steps aimed at tackling Russia's so-called "shadow fleet" of ships — which Finnish authorities classify as being vessels that are typically over 15 years old, poorly insured and often involved in deceptive maritime practices and sanctions evasion.
These efforts have hampered Russia's procurement of certain controlled products, Supo said, and also makes them more expensive.
Supo therefore warned Finnish firms to be on the lookout for "unusual procurement efforts or contacts", which may, for example, come from a recently-established company or from a firm based in a country with an unfamiliar operating environment.
Supo unveils terrorism threat scale
Supo's latest security overview report also saw the introduction of a new five-step terrorism threat level scale.
According to the new scale, the threat posed by far-right and radical Islamist terrorism is at level three (elevated) — a slight increase on the previous, equivalent threat level.
"The most likely threat of a terrorist attack continues to come from lone operators or small groups advocating far-right or radical Islamist ideology," the report said, adding that the threats from other sources are "minimal".
This section of the report also expresses concern about the "online radicalisation of young adults and minors", noting that the phenomenon is a significant international trend.
"This is also visible in Finland, both in radical Islamist and far-right contexts. Radicalisation of young adults and minors will probably be reflected in the near future also among individuals who are targets of counterterrorism work," the report stated.
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